Research
What Do We Learn From Cross-Regional Empirical Estimates in Macroeconomics
Adam Guren, Alisdair McKay, Emi Nakamura, and Jón Steinsson
NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2020, 175-223.
Cross-Regional estimates contain both partial equilibrium effects and local general equilibrium effects. Estimates of local fiscal multipliers can be used to isolate the partial equilibrium effects. Also, since housing supply elasticities are more dispersed in the long-run than short-run, cities with low long-run housing supply elasticities can have larger construction booms in the short run.
Housing Wealth Effects: The Long View
Adam Guren, Alisdair McKay, Emi Nakamura, and Jón Steinsson
Review of Economic Studies, 88(2), 669-707, March 2021.
The housing wealth elasticity was no higher in the 2000s than before. The important role of housing in the 2000s boom-bust was due to the large movements in house prices as opposed to an unusually large housing wealth elasticity. We find no boom-bust asymmetry in the housing wealth elasticity.
Local House Price Sensitivity Estimates -- Online Appendix -- Replication Files
Growth-Rate and Uncertainty Shocks in Consumption: Cross-Country Evidence
Emi Nakamura, Dmitriy Sergeyev, and Jón Steinsson
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 9(1), 1-39, January 2017.
Major economies experienced large growth-rate and uncertainty shocks during the 20th century. These shocks can help explain the high return on stocks relative to bonds.
Crises and Recoveries in an Empirical Model of Consumption Disasters
Emi Nakamura, Jón Steinsson, Robert Barro, and José Ursúa
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 5(3), 35-74, July 2013.
Many consumption disasters partially reverse in the longer run as the crisis that brings them on subsides. Yet, the long term effect of consumption disasters on the level of consumption is often substantial. Empirically realistic consumption disasters can explain a substantial fraction of the equity premium.
Web Appendix -- Data and Programs
Vox Article: Disasters, Recoveries, and the Equity Premium