Research
A Plucking Model of Business Cycles
Stéphane Dupraz, Emi Nakamura, and Jón Steinsson
US unemployment strongly displays the asymmetry that increases in unemployment are followed by decreases of similar amplitude, while the amplitude of the increase is not related to the amplitude of the previous decrease. This fact favors the plucking view that recessions are shortfalls below a maximum level rather than fluctuations around a natural rate:
Women, Wealth Effects, and Slow Recoveries
Masao Fukui, Emi Nakamura, and Jón Steinsson
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 15(1), 269-313, January 2023.
As female employment has converged towards male employment, the growth rate of female employment has slowed. This has led business cycle recoveries to become slower.
The Gift of Moving: Intergenerational Consequences of a Mobility Shock
Emi Nakamura, Jósef Sigurdsson, and Jón Steinsson
Review of Economic Studies, 89(3), 1557-1592, May 2022.
An volcanic eruption caused a third of the houses in a town to be covered by lava. People living in these houses were much more likely to move away permanently. For the children living in these houses, we estimate that being induced to move by this “lava shock” dramatically raised lifetime earnings and education.
What Do We Learn From Cross-Regional Empirical Estimates in Macroeconomics
Adam Guren, Alisdair McKay, Emi Nakamura, and Jón Steinsson
NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2020, 175-223.
Cross-Regional estimates contain both partial equilibrium effects and local general equilibrium effects. Estimates of local fiscal multipliers can be used to isolate the partial equilibrium effects. Also, since housing supply elasticities are more dispersed in the long-run than short-run, cities with low long-run housing supply elasticities can have larger construction booms in the short run.
New Evidence on the Cyclicality of Employer-to-Employer Flows from Canada
Alice Nakamura, Emi Nakamura, Kyle Phong, and Jón Steinsson
American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings, 109, 456-460, May 2019.
Canadian evidence indicates that employment-to-employment flows are highly pro-cyclical. This implies that recessions retard reallocation of workers across jobs.
Replication Files. Companion paper: Worker Reallocation over the Business Cycle: Evidence from Canada