But it is still worth keeping an eye on

In 1975 Adam Fergusson, a journalist on the Times, published a book called “When Money Dies”.

Emi Nakamura explores the macroeconomy by examining massive databases at their most granular level and finding patterns that elude others.

Noah Smith

Long ago, people thought the business cycle was akin to a natural event, like the phases of the moon. That has since been disproven, but there are a number of other competing hypotheses.

May 2nd 2019

Putting the macroeconomy under the microscope

The year 2007, when Emi Nakamura earned her phd, was a strange one for her chosen discipline of macroeconomics.

The John Clark Bates Medal almost never goes to a macroeconomist. Emi Nakamura is a worthy exception.

By Noah Smith

May 2, 2019, 12:27 AM GMT+5:30 Corrected May 2, 2019, 3:13 AM GMT+5:30

Ms. Nakamura is just fourth woman to receive award since it began in 1947

Emi Nakamura, professor at the University of California, Berkeley, won the John Bates Clark Medal for her distinctive approach and creativity in her research.

American Economic Association Honors and Awards Committee

Emi Nakamura is an empirical macroeconomist who has greatly increased our understanding of price-setting by firms and the effects of monetary and fiscal policies.

Macroeconomics is better than you think, microeconomics worse, and data are limited

In a couple of days I’m giving a luncheon talk to the New York chapter of the National Association of Business Economists, and the title of this essay was the title I provided for the talk.

China says its economy grew 6.7% for the third consecutive quarter

Chinese farmers worked at their paddy fields in a village in Congjiang county, southwest China's Guizhou province on Tuesday.

​Events have weakened the rationale against it, chief economics commentator Greg Ip says

Six years ago, Olivier Blanchard, then chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, floated the idea that central banks should target 4% inflation instead of 2%. I remember giving a colleague countless reasons why he was wrong.

China’s official figures both understate and overstate inflation

IS CHINA’S economy underheating? Not long ago, many people would have scoffed at the suggestion. The country is known for searing property prices, hot-money inflows and the steam escaping from its financial furnaces.

China's economy faces many challenges. Rising prices aren't one of them, at least according to official data.

Consumer prices in January were up 2.5% from a year earlier, matching December's pace and within Beijing's comfort zone. While such low inflation might normally make authorities feel safe opening the credit spigots, that's unlikely to happen given the concern about the economy's mounting debt load.

Other forms of government spending are presumably similar

A WHILE back I noted a post by a major tea-party figure eagerly supporting the bog-standard mainstream economic assumption that higher government spending creates higher economic output.

Düsseldorfer Ökonomen geben Gas

Die ewige Rivalität der rheinischen Städte Köln und Düsseldorf setzt sich jetzt auch in der Volkswirtschaftslehre (VWL) fort – zumindest auf den ersten Blick. Die Düsseldorfer Ökonomen haben ihren Kölner Kollegen den Wirtschaftswissenschaftler HansTheo Normann vor der Nase weggeschnappt.

Trade wars could break out. Overexposed banks might collapse. And that's just for starters

The financial crisis taught us that markets can drop further and faster than anyone expects. Housing prices, for example, fell for three straight years starting in 2006, even though the conventional wisdom right up until the bust began was that prices would not fall even a little bit.

The BLS data miss crucial import-price shifts. When missing info is factored in, the U.S. economy over the past decade looks worse than we thought

That's the annual reported growth of real gross domestic product per full-time worker from 1998 to 2007, according to government figures. "The amount that U.S. workers produce has grown at remarkable rates in recent years,

Sticky situations

FROM Washington to Wellington price stability is the desire of central bankers. Many of them have it, more or less: consumer-price inflation is 2.1% in America, 1.6% in the euro area, 2.4% in Britain and 0.6% in Japan.